by Michelle Boudin

Shipley Farms Beef has been around since 1872. Gray Shipley is currently serving as the fourth generation in his family to run the Watauga County cattle farm, about two hours outside of Charlotte. He admits times are tough and only getting worse for cattle farmers, and suspects that later this summer and into the fall, that could translate into higher costs for diners.

“Beef prices are insane and getting more insane,” he says. According to Shipley, severe droughts in the American west five years ago helped spur the increase in prices.

“The core of it is supply and demand,” he says. “I think we will see another 10 to 30 percent increase in beef [prices] based on the supply and the time it takes for supply to recover. I also think we’re going to see $10 ground beef in the grocery store before this is over with. 

The United States is currently facing a 75-year low in supply headcount in cattle across the country, and rebuilding a herd takes years. According to Shipley, growth is even more challenging right now because the country’s farmers are an aging population that may not be able to wait out the process.

“The average farmer in America is 59 years old, which means half of our farmers are older than that and it’s hard to ask them to ride out what is a ten-year cycle of recovery,” he says. “Farming is a hard life and some get out while the getting is good, so we’re continually losing farms and farmers.”

Shipley recently sent an email to customers to explain why Shipley Farms has to increase its prices.

“We’re reviewing prices every few months,” he says. “We try to keep it as stable as we can, especially for restaurants as they plan menus.”

Shipley Farms provides beef to several well-known Charlotte area restaurants including 300 East, The Goodyear House, and Sam Diminich’s new restaurant Grey’s Diner.

The Goodyear House’s chef Chris Coleman says the restaurant is currently absorbing the increased costs. “Shipley has been a partner of ours for close to three years now, and we know they are feeling the same inflationary impacts that we all are,” he says. “While the price increase definitely impacts our food costs, we are committed to supporting the farm because it’s the best dang beef we can buy. Supporting local sometimes means we pay more, but it doesn’t mean we waver in that support. Our guests understand that and hopefully can taste the difference.”  

Shipley — who also teaches at Appalachian State advising investors, companies, and entrepreneurs on fixing and building businesses — says he and his team at the farm have learned to get creative to keep the lights on.

“Key for us, and key for any business, is finding new ways to deliver new value to new customers,” he says. “First, we shifted from competing in commodities (raising and selling livestock at market) to specialty food — selling packaged meat instead of live animals. We quickly found chefs and consumers alike who were passionate about food that comes straight from the source, raised naturally, where they know what’s in it and, just as important, what’s not in it. That gave us a product that we didn’t have to sell at commodity prices because people recognized it’s not a commodity product.”

He says they’re also leaning into the growing popularity of the hands-on farming experience. “We started to focus on not just the product, but the experience — farm tours, vacation rentals on the farm, wine dinners, and events on the farm — experiences that give people a real connection to the land and to their food that they increasingly lack, and increasingly crave.  And I think we’re seeing that demand only increase, as AI creates more artificial experiences, and people realize they miss authentic experiences.”

Shipley is also excited that beef is back on the menu for so many consumers. “Things are trending back upwards after decades of poor nutritional health guidance ushering people away from animal fats,” he says. “That trend is starting to reverse and more and more people are coming to pasture raised meat.”

That also means demand is going up as supply is going down, but he remains optimistic about the future and says it’s all about farmers continuing to find new ways to create value for customers, and customers caring more about where their food is coming from.

“I’d love for more people to pay more attention to where their food is coming from, start looking with a little less skepticism at the locally sourced farmer’s market stuff that may cost a little more, and start wondering how that $7 meal deal combo can get sold for so cheap, and who may be getting exploited by it,” he says. “We need to start rebuilding the connection to the land and the local food system, and that happens as people go get to know their farmer, and go get to know the chefs who have taken the time to know their farmer. We’ll be a better, stronger, and healthier community for it.”

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